In an Analysis just released, Highly Respected Economic Analyst, John Williams, of Shadowstats has concluded that the Senate Bill, if enacted, would Devastate the Economy and Employment. (Thus the House of Representatives is the only institution which stands between us and this Impending Catastrophe...and its Leadership is waffling!) Consider Shadowstats:
July 17, 2013
"Pending Immigration Legislation Is on Track to Damage the U.S. Economy and to Increase Domestic Poverty, Unemployment and the GAAP-Based Federal Deficit. Given current U.S. economic and unemployment reality, and mounting global concerns as to the long-term solvency issues of the United States, enactment of the immigration legislation—currently passed by the U.S. Senate—would mean intensified domestic economic and solvency disasters....
In the current circumstance, the proposed immigration bill could not possibly perform as advertised, given the current state of the U.S. economy, U.S. unemployment (see CCN Chart below--Ed.) and the uncontained U.S. GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles)-based federal deficit. The GAAP-based deficit hit $6.6 trillion in 2012 (including the annual deterioration in the net present value of unfunded liabilities tied to programs such as Social Security and Medicare).
Contrary to the popular hype out of Wall Street and Washington, the U.S. economy remains in its deepest and most-protracted contraction since the Great Depression, with broad-based unemployment at a post-Great Depression high. Real (adjusted for inflation) median household income collapsed along with the economy in 2008, but as official economic recovery took hold in 2009, household income continued to tumble and now is bottoming-bouncing at a multi-decade low. These structural income problems impair personal consumption—broad-based economic activity—preventing a sustainable economic expansion.
One goal of the immigration-legislation backers is to keep downside pressure on domestic wages and salaries. While that may be fine from the standpoint of employers, continued household income constraint means ongoing stagnant-to-contracting business activity—a continued lack of economic recovery.
Considering the large number of long-term discouraged workers, who are not counted in the official government unemployment measures, broad unemployment is running about 23%. That compares with the government’s headline unemployment rate of 7.6% and its broadest unemployment measure at 14.3%, including short-term discouraged workers. This is not a circumstance conducive to the system happily absorbing a large influx of immigrants, legal or otherwise.
Where economic forces could moderate some of the demand for skilled legal immigrants, a large influx of low-skilled legal immigrants (allowed by the legislation), as well forcing the illegal immigrants into the legal system, quickly would increase government spending on financial-support programs, and spike unfunded liabilities for programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Despite repeated promises to the contrary, the U.S. government has demonstrated an inability and unwillingness to control the influx of illegal workers and to enforce existing laws as to the behavior of employers. Despite new legislation, given the politically-powerful special interests pushing the new law, the chances of those issues actually being resolved remain nil.
Accordingly, some of the proposed influx of low-skilled legal immigrants, and accommodation of current illegal immigrants, would push the immigrants into the already bloated, broad-based unemployment universe, into official poverty and into government support programs, as the low-skilled workers are displaced by an influx of new, even lower-cost undocumented workers.
If the immigration package were not enacted, although domestic conditions still would be beset with horrendous difficulties—on which the Congress might consider working—the U.S. economy would be relatively stronger, the long-term fiscal condition of the United States would be relatively better and the long-term discouraged unemployed would have relatively better prospects for finding gainful employment."
And a Pew Charitable Trusts report on the Impact of the Senate bill echoes Shadowstats conclusions:
"The immigration overhaul passed by the U.S. Senate could put a big squeeze on the budgets of state and local governments.
The proposal does not help states pay for costs incurred by required policy changes, including ramped up English classes and greater access to public hospitals and health clinics.
“Potentially, we are going to create a financial catastrophe for states and localities,” said Sheri Steisel, senior federal affairs counsel and a human services expert at the National Conference of State Legislatures. “The states will end up with the cost and consequences of the federal decision-making, with very little resources to rely on to make up the difference” ...
Daniel C. Vock-The Pew Charitable Trusts
Against this Backdrop it is most unfortunate that the House of Representatives top Leadership is caving in to the Open Borders lobby. Speaker Boehner, for example, says that granting Amnesty would achieve "fundamental fairness" and Majority leader Cantor echoes those sentiments,
Sherlock! Where are you when we need you?? Maybe you can help GOP quislings John Boehner and Eric Cantor answer some questions.
WHERE does House Speaker John Boehner get his idea that Amnesty is "about basic fairness" or that a consensus is emerging among House Members??
What about Basic Fairness to American Taxpayers who would foot the $6.3 Trillion Bill (NET, after subtracting taxes Immigrants pay) for those Legalized Illegals, and the Millions more who would be admitted legally?!
In fact, congressmen/women heard from their constituents in no uncertain terms when they were home over the July 4 holiday, that they want No Amnesty, no national biometric ID, no more pork, and no more false promises about ending illegal immigration. Even The Congressional Budget Office report admits that Amnesty and the provisions of the Senate immigration Bill would reduce illegal entries by no more than half, and most likely by as little as one-third of the current flow.
WHERE does Boehner get his idea that Amnesty would be fair to disadvantaged Americans who currently are unemployed or marginally employed? In fact, black Congressman Alan West has spoken forcefully against Amnesty. Admirably, the Black leadership (most of whom are Democrats) recently organized a Washington march against Amnesty.
WHERE does the House leadership get the idea that major Republican interest groups back this Amnesty? In fact, NeoConservative Weekly Standard editor William Kristol and NeoConservative National Review editor Rich Lowry jointly wrote against the Senate's S. 744. "The Republicans eager to back the bill are doing so out of political panic… This is silly". ["Kill the Bill", July 9, 2013].
Congressional freshman Tom Cotton (R. Ark) "sliced into the Senate’s immigration bill and dismissed the idea of a compromise. He urged Republicans to oppose a conference with the Senate, and warned that any formal negotiations with the upper chamber would lead to disaster....'We are not worlds apart from the Senate, we are galaxies apart,' Cotton told the speaker" [Costa, Robert. TN Eagle Forum, "On immigration, a freshman speaks for the right flank of the House GOP", July 15, 2013]. Cotton, Congressman Steve King of Iowa, and many other Republicans intend to stand firm against any House immigration Bill reaching the floor.
Should Boehner and Eric Cantor get their way and a GOP Bill make it to the House floor, then the average American citizen will suffer as that Bill would then go to Conference Committee and something like S. 744 would emerge as final legislation. On the way, one other thing to happen is that decisions would become very difficult for the mostly-Democrat Black Caucus and other interest groups representing working and unemployed Americans, including established legal immigrants. These Congressmen really do not want to vote For Amnesty, which would be Against The Economic Interests of those they are sent to Congress to represent.
As thinking politicians know, ANY immigration Bill passed in the House now will go to Conference Committee for reconciliation with S. 744. That is the way we get Very Bad legislation through the back door. Few Americans would like it.
The way to kill S. 744 is to ignore it. Let No immigration Bill come to the House floor so long as Harry Reid controls the Senate and Obama sits in the White House!
Most House Members have not yet made up their minds. Visit or Call them (phone calls or office visits followed by letters are the most effective -- fax machines can be turned off and emails disregarded) and tell them to Vote NO on any and all Immigration Bills, Good or Bad!!
Make full use of the ‘Talking Points’ in CCN’s Alerts posted this year on our website, except this: For now, forget pushing an immigration moratorium, because any Bill coming to the floor of the House is an accident waiting to happen.
Please donate to CCN today via web or mail, we must Intensify our efforts – the Amnesty Bill is moving fast while many distractions fill our time and political space. Nevertheless, together, we can stop this Bill, but we need your help! Please remember, your donations are tax-deductible.
To make a donation via the web, visit our CCN website.
Or to donate via mail, please send to:
Carrying Capacity Network | P.O. Box 457 | San Francisco, CA 94104
The only way we can stop this Disastrous Amnesty Bill is to generate Massive Grassroots Opposition. Help us.
Please forward this Alert to your Friends today!
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Shadowstats calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider:
Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)
Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported July 16, 2013
1.75% / 9.38%
U.S. Unemployment reported July 5, 2013
7.6% / 23.4%
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported June 26, 2013
1.62% / -1.98%
U.S. M3 reported July 15, 2013 (Month of June, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / (e) 4.43% (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.189 Trillion!)